“As the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries Join Band Wagon”
By Mwansa Chalwe Snr
There is a 21st-century version of the “Scramble for Africa” that is currently taking, which is similar to the one that occurred 140 years ago. In 1884, Seven Western European powers held a conference in Berlin, Germany, which marked the starting point of the Scramble for Africa. This entailed the conquest, invasion, occupation, division, and colonization of the African continent.
The motivation for the new scramble for Africa is the same: hunger for the continent’s massive natural resources. The only difference today is that it is with the consent of the continent’s leaders, and previous colonial masters of Britain, France, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Belgium and Germany have been overshadowed by new players.
China -West Rivalry in Africa
The West lost interest in African countries after they attained independence in the 1960s and virtually abandoned the continent. At the beginning of this century, China took advantage of the vacuum. China formed the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) as a vehicle for cooperating with Africa and poured billions into the Continent for infrastructure development.
The United States of America recently reacted to Chinese influence in Africa by enacting the Strategic Competition Act of 2021.There has been a growing realisation in Washington that Africa represents important opportunities in trade and investment.
“The United States firmly believes that it’s time to stop treating Africa as a subject of geopolitics and start treating it as the major geopolitical player it has become,” Antony Blinken said when he visited Nigeria in 2021.
The European Union joined the race for African influence in 2021.To counter Chinese influence, the EU announced a plan to invest €300 billion (US$340 billion) in global infrastructure, which European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen boasted would be better than China’s Belt and Road Initiative due to EU’s priorities of a green economy and digital technology.
“Countries [had] their experience with the Chinese investments and they need better and different offers,” she said. “We want to show that a democratic, value-driven approach can deliver on the most pressing challenges.”
India’s vaccine Diplomacy
India has been quietly making economic inroads into Africa under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The country is now Africa’s third-largest trading partner at $70 Billion, and the fifth largest investor with $64Billion of FDI.
“In recent years, India has sought to position itself as a global powerhouse. Newly minted as the world’s most populous country – as well as its fifth largest and fastest growing economy,” wrote Jonathan Yerushalmy, the Guardian Australia Editor in an Op-Ed in the Zambia Daily Mail.
And indeed, during the Covid-19 Pandemic when the West ignored Africa and was reluctant to provide excess Vaccines or give manufacturing licence, India was one of the first movers in an UN-backed global Covid-19 response, earning respect across Africa by supplying 24.7 million “Made in India” Covid-19 vaccines and COVAX supplies to 42 countries in Africa.
In 2018, India had 29 diplomatic missions in Africa, but in 2019, it had planned to add another 18 missions which was to bring the total to 47. India believes that it has a competitive advantage over China in Africa due to its shared colonial past, the English language, and the over 3million Indian diaspora in Africa.
Russia is back in Africa, as Turkey flexes its muscle
In 2019, Russia hosted 43 African heads of state at the Russia-Africa Summit in Sochi, where several agreements were signed. “We are not going to participate in a new ‘repartition’ of the continent’s wealth,” President Vladimir Putin said at the summit. “Rather, we are ready to engage in competition for cooperation with Africa. We have a lot to offer our African friends.”
Already, Russian state-owned energy companies Gazprom, Rostec and Rosatom are active in Africa, with key investments in the oil, gas and nuclear sectors in Algeria, Egypt, Uganda, and Angola.
Turkey is also expanding its footprint on the continent. It increased the number of embassies in Africa, from 12 in 2009 to 43 in 2021. In the last decade, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited more than 28 African countries and 38 times in total, which is a reflection of his ambitions on the continent. And in the past 20 years or so, trade between Turkey and Africa has grown from US$5.4 billion to US$25.3 billion.
This competition for influence should generally be welcomed by African countries as it provides them with more choices. It is an opportunity for Africa to fast-track its development by leveraging its resources and its market of 1.2 billion people, most of them young.
The African Union officials have been cautious on the new “invasion”. African Union’s Commissioner for infrastructure and energy, Amani Abou-Zeid commented: “Africa’s focus is about securing financial access to fund development for its fast-growing population. We need serious partners; we need people who can deliver. We have had bad experiences and good experiences with literally everybody.” And her boss Moussa Mahamat, Chairman of the African Union commission once said: “Africa refuses to be the theatre for playing out of rivalries between Chinese, Americans or Europeans.”
Zambia, the epicentre of the scramble for Africa
Zambia has been the poster child of 21st Century scramble for Africa. Since his election as President in August 2021, Mr. Hakainde Hichilema, has marketed the country aggressively for investment as part of his strategy of economic diplomacy.
Zambia has hosted unprecedented number of high-level officials from influential countries during the last two years. These have included USA Vice President, Kamala Harris and Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, Chinese Agriculture Minister, the Saudi Arabia Agriculture Minister, and many others. And recently, a United States Congressional delegation (CODEL), led by Senator Patty Murray, accompanied by Senators Chris Coons, Gary Peters, Catherine Cortez, and Peter Welch visited Zambia and met with President Hakainde Hichilema.
And for the first time in Zambia’s history, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have shown interest to compete for investment in Zambia. The cash-rich oil countries of United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are aggressively pushing to secure critical minerals supply in Zambia in their bid to diversify their economies and engage with energy transition.
In February,2024, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Environment, Water and Agriculture Abdulrahman Al Fradley visited Zambia looking for investment opportunities in crop farming, livestock, and aquaculture. The Saudis are already constructing a $102 million, 820 bed capacity women and children specialist hospital in Lusaka.
In March,2024, the United Arab Emirates’ International Resources Holdings (IRH), a subsidiary International Holdings Company (IHC), officially took over Zambia’s Mopani Copper Mines by investing $1.1 billions in return for 51% ownership of the business, through its subsidiary, Delta Mining Limited (Delta).
One of the clearest signs of Zambia epitomising the Scramble for Africa has been the composition of its debt. Zambia owes Eurobond holders, China, India, Israel, Britain etc. The protraction of the G20 Framework debt restructuring talks-which were only resolved in March,2024-can mainly be attributed to the geopolitical rivalry between China and the West, with Zambia as a battleground.
On the 7th of February 2024, Chinese Ambassador to Zambia, Du Xiaohui, announced that Chinese investors had proposed to invest over $1billion in the Tanzania-Zambia Railway Authority (TAZARA) under a public private partnership (PPP) model. In the same week, United States of America and its partners were involved in the Lobito Corridor Private Sector Investment Forum, which was convened by the G7’s Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGI) and the USA government Agency, International Development Finance Corporation (DFC).
Recommended Strategy for Africa and Zambia
At continent level, the African Union (AU) should take a Leadership role by creating a unified African vision on how to work with the foreign powers. There is need to strike a balance between resource nationalism and collaboration. Africa can assert ownership (resource nationalism), while collaborating with foreign investors for expertise and capital.
At country level, Zambia should focus on value addition by ensuring that raw materials are processed into finished or semi-finished goods before export and get directly involved in marketing a share of its minerals. Zambia should negotiate better deals with foreign investors than it has done in the past and avoid being arm twisted to secure a larger share of revenue, technology, and skills transfer.
In general, Zambia should engage local thinkers to craft a strategy and roadmap for this 21st Century opportunity to fast-track development. The country cannot afford to rely on foreign institutions like the United Nations agencies, World Bank, IMF, Chinese institutions and individuals, to work out a strategy for taking advantage of this phenomenon,because they are highly conflicted.
It is to Africa and Zambia’s advantage that China, the US, EU, Russia, India, and other world powers should be jockeying for influence, as it can bring critical investment for development. But it should be wary of being caught up in the crossfire of geopolitical and economic competition which can degenerate into conflict.
Mwansa Chalwe Snr is a Chartered accountant, an independent financial commentator and analyst. He is the author of the book, China-West Battleground in Africa: Debt ridden Zambia.
Contact: pmchalweATgmailDOTcom
