An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team led by Mission Chief, DAN GHURA, has completed its STAFF VISIT to Zambia.

The team has been in the country from November 13, 2019.

During their tour of duty, the team conducted data exchange and policy consultations on measures that the Zambian Government is undertaking to address some of the current macroeconomic challenges.

The IMF team also discussed with the Government, recent developments in the Zambian economy such as the macroeconomic situation, the Governments policy response, and the progress made in the implementation of austerity measures.

During the staff visit, the IMF team met the President of the Republic of Zambia Mr. EDGAR LUNGU, the Bank of Zambia, the Zambia Revenue Authority, Cooperating Partners, Civil Society Organisations and the Business Community.

The Government and the IMF both acknowledge that the country continues to face macroeconomic vulnerabilities. Key among them is the impact of climate change on electricity generation and food production. The parties agreed that the stated vulnerabilities have pass-through effects on the rest of the economy.

Based on the assessment of the fiscal situation, the IMF and the Government further agreed that urgent implementation of policy adjustments related to debt management and fiscal matters will be essential in restoring the country’s fiscal and debt sustainability.

During the various policy level and technical sessions, the Government reiterated its commitment to continue implementing measures that have been pronounced in the past that are aimed at restoring the country on a high growth trajectory and ensuring debt sustainability.

The Government will maintain close contact with the Fund in finding solutions and ensuring that policy interventions are undertaken to address challenges and vulnerabilities that the country is currently facing.

The Government will use the outcome of the just ended IMF staff visit to build a firm basis for a defined sustainable macroeconomic path, which is critical for restoration of macroeconomic stability and forms a basis for future engagement with the Fund.

By Sishuwa Sishuwa

On 8 November 2019, President Edgar Lungu, speaking in his first press conference for four years, brought up Zambia’s elections scheduled for 2021 before declaring “I am game”. Breaking with his usual practice of governing through press aides and off-the-cuff remarks on airport tarmacs, he stressed publicly that he would be the presidential candidate for the ruling Patriotic Front (PF), in power since 2011, and would leave no stone unturned in his quest to secure a third term.

President Lungu was first elected in the 2015 presidential by-election that followed Michael Sata’s untimely death in office. He was then re-elected in the disputed 2016 polls, narrowly defeating Hakainde Hichilema, leader of the opposition United Party for National Development (UPND). Since then, Zambia’s economy has faltered thanks to a combination of government incompetence, venality and external shocks. A devastating drought has left close to 2 million people in need of food aid and contributed to an electricity crisis that has seen power cuts for as long as 20 hours a day. Grand corruption has become so endemic one might be forgiven for mistaking it for an election promise on which the government has been striving to deliver. Meanwhile, policy uncertainty in the crucial mining industry has, together with low copper prices, slowed production. These factors have halved Zambia’s annual growth rate from nearly 4% in 2016 to just 2% in 2019, while external debt and inflation have surged. These negative economic indicators have not only led to rising costs of living for ordinary Zambians, but also fed calls for political change within the ruling PF. Two broad factions have emerged in recent months.

Team Lungu

The first comprises party leaders supportive of President Lungu and his 2021 candidature. PF Secretary-General Davies Mwila has emerged as the most vociferous member of this group, while sources in the party say others in this faction include: presidential political adviser Kaizer Zulu; Health Minister Chitalu Chilufya; Minister of Home Affairs Stephen Kampyongo; Tourism Minister Ronald Chitotela; Minister of National Planning Alexander Chiteme; Lusaka Province Minister Bowman Lusambo; and various of Lungu’s business associates.

Among other things, those in this cohort are trying to show their loyalty to the president in the hope that if he does not stand, he will anoint one of them as his successor. Lungu is afraid of being prosecuted for corruption, embezzlement and criminal misuse of power if he leaves office. To protect himself, he might decide to remain in power for as long as possible or find a pliant replacement, the more loyal the better. Members of this faction also have deep vested interests in Lungu remaining as president. This is the surest way of guaranteeing their current positions of power and protecting themselves from prosecution.

Lungu’s attempt to secure a third term is therefore not just an individual aspiration. It is part of a plan by a whole PF faction that seeks to ride on his presumed popularity and control of the state apparatus to retain its positions of influence for the purposes of accumulation. One or two members of this group – such as Chilufya and Chitotela – are also rooting for Lungu in the hope that should he stand in 2021, he might nominate one of them as his running mate, a position that would give them great advantage in a future presidential bid.

The anti-Lungu brigade

The second faction consists of PF leaders who believe that fielding Lungu in the 2021 elections would be courting electoral defeat. Although it lacks a clear leader, this group revolves around the figurehead of Kelvin Bwalya Fube, a former PF election deputy chairperson and charismatic lawyer who played an important role in securing Lungu’s nomination for the 2015 election. Fube has considerable appeal among disenchanted party youths, an influential constituency that was central to the dramatic fall of former PF Secretary-General Wynter Kabimba and the subsequent rise of both Mwila and Lungu following Sata’s death. Also backing Fube are some senior PF figures, including some cabinet ministers who fear reprisals if their support for him is revealed.

This group believes that Lungu is unpopular among the party’s rank-and-file as well as Zambians more generally. The massive turnout at public rallies of the main opposition leader Hichilema, even in supposedly PF strongholds such as the Copperbelt, has further raised concerns. This ruling party faction therefore wants a different presidential candidate for 2021.

The four-point plan to stop Lungu

PF Secretary-General Mwila has poured scorn on this possibility. Nonetheless, the group has designed a strategy to get rid of Lungu made up of four possible plans.

The first is to simply persuade Lungu to abandon his aspirations for 2021 and name a successor. If this fails, the second is to turn to Zambia’s constitution, which now requires political parties to hold regular elections, to call on the PF Central Committee to hold an elective party convention. Sources in the party say plans are already underway to hold one in April 2020. At this convention, members of the Fube faction would sponsor a candidate to challenge Lungu for the 2021 nomination. Given Lungu’s lack of a firm grip on the PF, he might be vulnerable in such a race. This is why Lungu’s supporters are now lobbying the Central Committee to either ensure the incumbent is the only candidate or to cancel the need for a convention altogether.

The third strategy is to use the courts to disqualify Lungu from running. Despite the president’s confidence, many people believe he is not legally eligible to run for another term as the constitution contains a clear two-term limit. The president’s supporters argue that his first term of just 18 months should not count towards this total, but Zambia’s Constitutional Court recently delivered an ambiguous ruling on this question, which has emboldened Lungu’s opponents.

Worried by the prospect of a legal challenge to Lungu’s nomination, the pro-Lungu faction has put forward a widely condemned constitutional amendment bill. Among other things, the bill would abolish constitutional provisions that currently allow any person to submit a legal contest to a candidate’s nomination.

The bill is set to be tabled for second reading at any time. To pass in Zambia’s 167-member National Assembly, it would require at least two-thirds support (at least 111 MPs). This is a tall order – especially if done through a secret ballot – given the PF’s narrow majority and questions over its MPs’ loyalty to Lungu. Aware of this uncertainty, its backers seem keen to postpone the process until it can be more confident of its outcome. The problem is that the more they delay, the more traction the anti-Lungu faction may gain.

Should all this fail, the Fube faction has a final fourth option: form a breakaway party, recruit many who have already been hounded out of the PF, and launch a political assault on Lungu as the opposition. Its aim would be to win power or, at the very least, make it impossible for Lungu to retain it.

Despite the PF’s disastrous management of the economy, it is fair to say that the internal factions in the ruling party are the real effective opposition in Zambia – that the PF’s greatest enemy is itself. At the heart of the ongoing rebellion against Lungu is the push for a Bemba-speaking candidate to succeed him. Although they harbour distinct presidential ambitions, PF leaders who are pro-Lungu, but hail from Bemba-speaking communities, and those outrightly opposed to him agree on one point: that his successor, be they from Team Lungu or the ant-Lungu brigade, must be a Bemba speaker.

The outcome of this raging power struggle for the leadership of Zambia’s governing party will have significant implications on its political standing and, depending on how the successful faction handles the political fallout and economic collapse, the potential for a transfer of power in 2021. It is worth stressing that while the PF is saddled with deepening rifts, opposition parties appear to be holding together. They have continued to capitalise on the gradual implosion of the ruling party as well as the growing public revulsion to Lungu over his poor handling of the economy, the kleptocratic behaviour of his administration, and the shrinking democratic space.

Green Party President Peter Sinkamba has called upon the Mines Safety Department (MSD) to enforce the mining laws and regulations by prohibiting provisional liquidator Mr. Milingo Lungu from continued management of Konkola Copper Mines (KCM) mining operations because he lacks minimum qualifications prescribed by mining regulations to do so.

And Mr. Sinkamba said it is wrong for MSD to resort to double standards by turning a blind eye to illegalities currently taking place at KCM operations while expecting other mining companies to comply with the mining laws and regulations.

Commenting on the excessive discharge of noxious gases from the Lime Plant at Nchanga Mine last week which resulted in hospitalization of 232 children and 40 miners, Mr. Sinkamba said this incidence is unprecedented on the Copperbelt and should not be treated with kid gloves as air pollution is one of the most dangerous hazards on mining as it kills within minutes.

“High concentrations of sulfur dioxide can affect lung function, worsen asthma attacks, and worsen existing heart disease in sensitive population groups. This gas can also react with other chemicals in the air and change to small particles that can get into the lungs and cause similar health effects.

“People with lung diseases, such as asthma and chronic bronchitis will generally have more serious health effects at higher sulphur dioxide levels.

“Children are at higher risk from sulfur dioxide exposure because their lungs are still developing. They are also more likely to have asthma, which can get worse with sulphur dioxide exposure.

“Clearly, what happened last week at KCM was hazardous discharge of sulphur dioxide which was more than 5 parts per million. At that level, sulphur dioxide triggers health warnings of emergency conditions, hence the hospitalizations and huge population affected. This is illegal and dangerous. MSD should not turn a blind eye to such hazardous illegalities. They must act firmly without fear or favour in national interest otherwise we will soon have a national disaster at KCM.

“But the starting point should be for MSD to prohibit the provisional liquidator Mr. Milingo Lungu from the continued illegal running of the mine operations at KCM.

“According to Part 2 of the Mining Regulations, Mr. Milingo is an incompetent person. He has never had any adequate training and experience so as to enable him to perform the duty of manager of a mining operation without avoidable danger to himself or any other person. He is incompetent to be appointed by a holder of the mining right to be responsible for the control, supervision and direction of mining operations in accordance with Regulation 202 of 1971 and 1973, and as such he is a danger to himself and other persons within the mine and areas contiguous to the mine. Even Section 14 of the Mines and Minerals Development Act of 2015 prohibits what Mr. Milingo Lungu is doing at KCM. The MSD should stop this illegality forthwith,” Mr. Sinkamba said.

By Peter Sinkamba

The calculus on the importation of power from ESKOM South Africa, where the Zambian Government is spending US$27million per month, starting this month, is not adding up. Here is why:

Two months ago, ZESCO announced that it was increasing the hours for power rationing due to continued decrease of water levels in the country’s hydro power plants. The firm increased hours for power cut from 6 to 8 hours for all industrial and commercial customers.

According to ZESCO notice, a continued decline in water levels in Kariba Dam resulted in the country experiencing a power deficit of about 700 megawatts from the initial 273 megawatts which was reported in June.

Last week, ZESCO once again notified the public further reduction of power generation at main power stations, namely Kariba, Kafue George and Ithezi thezi. According to ZESCO, the state of affairs has significantly reduced with power deficit to 872 megawatts. Furthermore, Zesco announced longer load shedding periods of more than 15 hours per day.

ZESCO and Government are currently making arrangements to start importing electricity from ESCOM South Africa so as to cushion the power deficit. Finance Minister Dr Bwalya Ngandu told journalists at State House on Thursday last week that Government had met the obligation of importing power from ESKOM. Government says it has since paid for one month for importation of power from ESKOM. The cost is pegged at US$27 million for 300 megawatts per month.

Now, look at this calculus: In June, power deficit was 273 megawatts, and the load shedding hours were 4 hours. In September, power deficit increased to 700 megawatts, and loading shedding hours increased to more than 15 hours per day. When this deal takes off in two days’ time, the power deficit will be reduced from 872 megawatts to 572 megawatts. However, Government says the importation will reduce load shedding by only 2 hours! This mean load shedding will remain at more than 13 hours per day.

The calculus is not adding up here. Check this out:

If 273 = 4

700 = 8

872 = 15

572 =?

Based on ZESCO’s figures published since June this year, as the worst case scenario, the importation of 300 megawatts must reduce load shedding to maximum of 6 hours. In other words, the deal should reduce load shedding from the current more than 15 hours to maximum 6 hour per day.

So, going by ZESCO and Government own pronouncements, and statistics, something fishy is cooking here!

Mines Minister Richard Musukwa has directed the Mine Safety Department and Zambia Environmental Management Agency to use all provisions of the law to deal with Konkola Copper Mines -KCM following the air pollution which happened in Chingola last week.

Last week, over 200 pupils and 40 KCM employees in Chingola were rushed to hospitals after inhaling sulphuric acid which KCM released from its acid plant.

Mr. Musukwa said the discharge of Sulphur dioxide emissions by KCM has endangered people especially the pupils who were in examination classes.

Speaking when he paid a courtesy call on Chingola District Commissioner Mary Chibesa, the Minister said the two agencies must use all the provisions of the law to deal with KCM because its pollution is well documented.

Mr. Musukwa said once KCM is made to answer for its actions, all mining houses will see it as an example not to indiscriminately pollute the environment.

Earlier, Mrs. Chibesa said KCM had been polluting rivers and fields for a long time.

She complained that despite several pleas from her office, KCM has not been responding to the many incidences of pollution.

The Mines Minister, who is accompanied by Director Mine Safety Mooya Lumamba and Nchanga Member of Parliament Chali Chilombo, is about to visit the acid plant were the sulphuric acid was discharged last week.

ZNBC

By: Anthony Bwalya – UPND Member

From the onset, I wish to challenge the PF administration to deny that this is not true and proceed to providing the public with a figure of how much taxpayers have lost in fraudulent public sector payroll management.

But I wish to assure the public, that the figure presented is even an understatement of the scale of the actual plunder perpetrated by this careless PF regime.

When President Hakainde Hichilema and the UPND indicated that we would deliver an unprecedented 5 year $1.5 billion personal and SME taxation reform plan, the Patriotic Front (PF) contemptuously laughed off the idea as a fantasy. We clearly indicated, that the $1.5 billion tax reform plan would be paid for through:

1. An upward adjustment of the lower tax exempt threshold from the current K3,300 to K4,000. This plan is expected to cover the losses of up to K605 per month which households have incurred since 2011 owing to surges in the prices of basic commodities and a slow down in the growth of wages.

2. A 10% reduction in the upper tax bracket from the current 37.5% to 22.5%. This is intended to motivate hard work and excellence, but also provide further relief for households.

3. Relief on business levies and taxation for qualifying SMEs for purposes of allowing them smooth transition to growth and expansion, targeting a no obligation period of up to 5 years.

A combination of these measures alone is expected to reduce household poverty and inequality by allowing families more lattitude to spend on what matters most to them – education, health, food, housing and other services such as water and electricity, whose cost has spiked under the PF.

It is also expected that SMEs will for once be able to invest in business expansion and growth without being punished for good business decision making. This is how we expect to create more jobs and generate more household based incomes at a very basic micro economic level.

Now the reason the PF are quick to dismiss such progressive reforms is because they would rather be drawing money out of the incomes of individuals, households and small businesses and into their own private pockets and other party mobilisation agendas.

We now know that over $15 million is dubiously siphoned and shared out every month among senior civil servants, ministers and the party through the irregularly management of public sector payroll. In fact, the issue of ghost workers is NOT an accident. This is a carefully threaded scheme to steal money using the employment credentials of those long retired, the dead, the transferred and those newly employed.

This is a scheme well known to Ministers, Permanent Secretaries, Departmental directors and middle management civil servants. This is why it has taken over 8 years for the PF to have this conversation. In fact, it is the shrinking fiscal space and the pressure on public sector payroll that caused an internal outcry by some good civil servants about this issue.

The UPND is looking to leverage sound public financial management, cutting edge expertise and looking to achieve a less than 35% public sector wage bill of the total budget.

We want to call upon Zambians to believe that something else is different in terms of public leadership.

The kind of new normal the PF want to indoctrinate into the hearts and minds of Zambians is a fraud and a scheme that will injure and steal from many, the prospects of a better future.

2021 is the year we all decide different.

Zambia’s award winning singer-song writer Drimz has released the video for his new single “Chintelelwe.” The visual features a skit by raving Zambian comedians Bashi Mumbi and Bana Mumbi.

The song was produced by C.O.G and Jerry Fingers while the video was directed by The Visual Papi.