Youths are deciding 21st-century elections, as they recently did in Senegal

By Mwansa Chalwe Snr

Zambia’s general elections are due in two and a half years, in 2026. With the New Dawn administration having almost sorted out the debt restructuring and mining issues, as well as sufficiently marketed Zambia as a good destination for foreign direct investment (FDI), they should now laser-focus on local solutions for job creation through innovative initiatives to promote Micro and Small Enterprises (MSEs), in order to create millions of jobs for the youths.

According to the latest empirical evidence, the majority of Zambian businesses are in the MSEs category and are mainly informal, as stated by the Bank of Zambia (BOZ) Survey. In its latest Survey of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMES), the Bank Of Zambia reported that Zambia has 1,553,892 MSMEs, and out of that total, 98.8% (1,535,245) were micro (less than 10 employees), whereas one percent were small, and 0.2 percent medium-sized. Furthermore, the report stated that 95.6% of MSMEs were in the informal sector and presumably youth-owned. It is, therefore, evident from the data that micro-enterprises provide opportunities for formal critical mass job creation for Zambia.

From the political angle, in the 21st century, it has become abundantly clear that it’s the youth that determine elections in almost all countries. It all started with Barack Obama in 2008 in the US. Then, in 2019, in El Salvador, a 37-year-old Nayib Bukele, an independent-minded leftist former mayor of San Salvador (2015-2018), became the youngest politician to be elected president, and broke 40 years of the two-party rule in El Salvador, by winning in the first round by 53%, because of the Youth Vote. And recently in Senegal, 44-year-old Bassirou Diomaye Faye won 54% in the first round too. In Kenya, it was the same. It is apparent that politicians can only ignore the Youth vote in their economic strategies at their peril.

Causes of Youth Unemployment

According to this author’s research, there are seven major factors contributing to high youth unemployment in Sub-Saharan African countries, including Zambia. And these are: low economic growth, governments’ facilitation of informality, low entrepreneurship skills, low research and development budgets, deficiencies in the education system which have limited relevance to the requirements of industry resulting in skills mismatch between the education system and the labor market. The lack of experience by youth and lack of access to information, communication, and technology facilities and the internet. Let us highlight four of the above causes in more detail.

The first major cause of youth unemployment in Zambia is the low economic growth rate, which is insufficient to generate enough jobs. The Zambian economy grew by 4.6% in 2021, 4.7% in 2022, and 4.3% in 2023. It is forecast to grow by 4.7% in 2024 by the government but IMF recently forecast growth at 2.3%. These rates are insufficient for the country to develop, create jobs, and reduce poverty. And the IMF agrees with this assertion.

“Despite its abundant resources, growth has been insufficient to lift its young and growing population from poverty. More than 60 percent of Zambia’s population lives below the international poverty line compared to 35% across the Sub-Saharan Countries,” IMF said in a statement reviewing the Zambian economy.

It should be noted that in Zambia’s case, even if the economic growth rates were to be as high as 7%, based on past experience in the mid-2000s, such growth rates would not translate into substantial job creation. This is so because Zambia’s growth rates are mainly driven by mining activities, where raw materials are exported with little value addition. Furthermore, the mechanization of most of the tasks that were previously done by human beings means that very few jobs are created. In addition, the low level of subcontracting of Zambian businesses, especially by Chinese multinationals and mining companies, means that few indirect jobs are created.

The second major cause of unemployment is the flourishing informal sector in Africa, which makes up 90% of the economy. This author does not consider informal employment as value-adding employment. This is because informality retards development. African governments, including Zambia, have not realized that they are partly enablers of Youth unemployment through their policies which discourage youth entrepreneurs from starting formal businesses. Governments are facilitators of informality through labor policies, tax policies, and excessive regulations. Excessive regulations can make setting up a formal business cumbersome and expensive. Obtaining permits, navigating licensing procedures, and complying with labor laws can be overwhelming for aspiring entrepreneurs, especially young people.

In addition, stringent tax policies can make formalization unattractive. In a nutshell, these complexities and costs can discourage young people with entrepreneurial potential from starting formal microenterprises. And this hinders innovation and job creation in the formal sector, and reduces the number of formal jobs available.

Importance of Research and Development

When one looks around the world, countries that have succeeded in creating jobs are those that have been innovative. And innovation does not just happen, it must be facilitated. Zambia and other African countries spend very little on Applied research and development, and as a result, they are unable to create jobs through innovation. Applied research can help develop new technologies and solutions suited to Zambia’s specific needs.

Without enough funding, these innovations are less likely to happen. Applied research can identify new business opportunities in Zambia. This could be in areas like agriculture, renewable energy, or ICT. With limited research, these opportunities go unnoticed, hindering the creation of new businesses that could employ young people.

The lack of entrepreneurship skills is another major contributor to youth unemployment in Africa. According to the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development research, two out of five or 40% of youths want to start a business, but they do not know how to go about it.

What is the way forward?

The authorities need to realize that to solve a problem, the size of the solution must fit the size of the problem. To solve the Youth unemployment problem, there is a need to press the reset button, and a proper comprehensive diagnosis done before crafting solutions.

The detailed diagnosis should entail taking a systematic approach. First, there should be the identification of the different causes of Youth unemployment, secondly, it’s crucial that there is a recognition of the fact that the Youth demographic is heterogeneous and different demographics which require different solutions. Thirdly, there has to be categorization of solutions in the different timelines of short term, medium term, and long term, and thereafter proper sequencing of interventions should be done.

And finally, a comprehensive road map that captures the above variables should be drawn up. The roadmap document should be the basis for designing the different short term, medium-term, and long-term solutions, for the different Youth demographics. The approach of designing disjointed, one size fits all, theoretical and not well-researched solutions, as has been the case in the past, should be avoided as they have failed.

Traditional methods of internship, financial empowerment, technical and vocational training, alone, will not solve the youth unemployment problem. They will certainly create a couple of thousand jobs, but not the hundreds of thousands or rather even millions required, given that every year 350,000 are entering the job market.

Conclusion

The New Dawn administration should learn from their predecessors, who panicked after Artists conducted a virtual demonstration in the bush about lack of jobs, after being denied a police permit. The virtual demonstration attracted huge local and international viewership such that the previous administration had to take note.

In panic, they decided to throw money at the problem, by introducing a poorly designed K470 million multisectoral Youth empowerment program and a $30 Million Artists empowerment program, having ignored sound advice about initiatives for youth job creation previously, including from this author. The late interventions never made a difference at the ballot box. Financial capital (money), without intellectual capital has never solved problems.

The advice to Zambian politicians is: do not ignore the Youth unemployment problem till the last minute. And to the current administration, they should not entirely delegate the issue of youth job creation with the civil service technocrats, whose jobs are not threatened by elections. They should look for solutions outside the civil service bureaucracy and engage those in the private sector that may have solutions.

The advice to President Hakainde Hichilema is that he should consider taking a leaf from former United States President Barack Obama’s book when facing the 2008 financial crisis. He appointed Steven Rattner, a Restructuring and Turnaround expert as Car Czar to save US motor industry. The President needs consider appointing a “Youth Job Creation Czar” to help him solve the high youth unemployment problem.

The writer is a Chartered Accountant and Author. He is the Founder of Prosper Knowledge Solutions Ltd, a research-based virtual Knowledge and Strategy firm.

Part One

It is not my intention to bore the reader with economic and political jargon and semantics on this matter, but my wish is to mainly deal with practical issues.

Reason No. 1: The opposition has no strong credible candidate.

The opposition mainly comprises press briefings, Facebook, and TikTok parties. Silavwe’s Golden Party is almost a one-man show though he is an eloquent speaker, Nawakwi’s FDD is a spent force, Mulyokela’s party has its Headquarters in the street just adjacent to Lusaka Central Police Station, Mbikusita Lewanika’s Agenda for Zambia is unheard of while the New Heritage Party is mainly for posing on camera. Mwenda Kasonde’s Economic Freedom Fighters is very active on TikTok and YouTube while Thomas Sipalo’s party has always been available for entertainment at opposition party meetings and the list goes on. The main parties that one can identify are Patriotic Front (Edgar Lungu’s faction which is currently moribund) and The Socialist Party headed by Fred Mmembe. Even amidst the current economic hardships, people are not calling for Mr. Lungu’s return save for PF cadres and others who were the beneficiaries of Kasaka Ka Ndalama. People’s memories are still fresh on a) Edgar Lungu’s reign of terror b) marginalization of people from what PF terms the Zambezi Region c) total neglect of the youth and students in schools and 4) neglect of rural development. So, Mr. Lungu has very little chance of winning though he can pick a few votes. On the other hand, if the opposition went for Fred Mmembe and floated him against HH, he would be badly battered. Of course, he would still pick a few votes here and there like Muchinga and Northern Provinces. Apparently, he also tries to get some votes when competing in Eastern Province as seen in the Kaumbwe parliamentary by-election in October 2021, but he cannot put up any serious challenge towards unseating President HH. Mmembe’s past will also continue haunting him and may continue costing him electoral successes in years to come if he does not address and provide answers to Winter Kabimba’s unending accusations over their past encounters. He also owes the nation an explanation on whether President Lungu’s closure of the Post Newspapers was politically motivated or was due to tax evasion or failure to pay taxes now that they even share the same platform. Was the closure stage managed like in the James Bond movie or it was real?

Reason No. 2: The opposition’s strongest candidate, Mr. Edgar Lungu, is a “Coward Political Hyena.”

Why do I say so? Stephen King once told us that “A cowardly leader is the most dangerous of men.” At a press conference held in Lusaka in late January 2024, Mr. Lungu was asked what he would have done if he were in office, to restructure the debt burden that he himself with his government contracted and left behind and was suffocating the economy. The reporter further wanted to know what the former president would have done differently. Instead of giving hope to Zambians who have now been terribly affected by his careless borrowing, the former president rudely shut the reporter up and accosted him for asking the question. “I am not in State House, so, you can’t ask me that, ask HH,” he retorted in reference to President Hichilema. Those are answers that came from a person I cannot hesitate to describe as a Coward Political Hyena. On the contrary, President HH managed to restructure the debt to the shame of prophets of doom. Mr. Lungu can only be compared to a Hyena’s cowardly character of waiting for other animals to hunt but quickly grabs their hard-earned kill without putting any effort. That’s what he is. He and his friends want to ride on HH’s success and take his presidency away. Mwailasha!!

Reason No. 3: The failed PF tribal card used against HH in 2021 will no longer be available in 2026.

In a video post that went viral just before the 2021 elections, then-President Lungu informed the nation that Hakainde Hichilema would never be president of Zambia saying “…only one man, munthu omwe, now you ask yourself, what is so special, eeehh, well, we will one day have a Tonga president, but certainly not the current aspirant” in direct reference to Hakainde Hichilema. Bizwell Mutale, another senior member of the then-ruling party PF, followed the Tongas to Pemba District and told them in their faces whilst there, “Zambia will never have a Tonga president.” But HH sailed through with a landslide victory in 2021 and Mr. Lungu has never apologized for those remarks. In Eastern Province, the PF were telling unsuspecting citizens in villages that if they voted for HH, he would divide the country as Eastern Province would be cut off. But the same HH they were profiling has taken huge amounts of resources for education, health, and infrastructure development to the rural areas. So, people are wondering: Is this the same person whom the PF referred to as divisive and the one who was going to divide the country?” they ask.

Reason No. 4: Misplaced opposition reliance on current economic hardships and disillusionment with UPND and HH.

Arnold Glasow tells us “One of the tests of leadership is the ability to recognize a problem before it becomes an emergency.” Did Mr. Lungu realize that contracting such huge debt would result in the crisis we are in? Not at all. But no sooner had HH taken over the presidency than he identified the problem and ventured on a mission to restructure the debt failure to which the country would have remained stagnant. Swope also reminds us, “I cannot give you the formula for success, but I can give you the formula for failure, which is: Try to please everybody.” The opposition is riding on a platform of current disenchantment by the electorate hoping for hardships to continue along the same trajectory until election time in 2026. What people should realize is that President HH and his team are making very hard decisions in order for Zambia to get redeemed from the shackles of PF economic mismanagement and plunder. Your car breaks down. Surely, you must have it repaired before you venture on a long journey. This is what President HH is doing. Making hard decisions is not for the weak-hearted. Mr. Lungu and his teams should also know that disillusionment of voters does not automatically translate into opposition votes. Not at all. There are so many other factors that come into play. The Zambian economy is divided into sectors and of course, I am aware that most of the sectors rely on one another. These sectors can be compared to a school syllabus or course outline. The examiner sets an examination based on the entire syllabus and the paper is given to the student to write the exam. The examiner cannot be seen to get the student’s answer manuscript and start marking the paper after one hour when the exam time given is two hours thus denying the student one full hour. President HH needs the remaining hour to complete the exam before giving the manuscript to the voters for marking in 2026. Judging him now is unfair because he is still writing the exam and he still has time to complete the exam.

Reason No. 5: President Hichilema has fortified his position by clearing his name and presidency on African Cultural Values and Christianity.

A few months after getting elected, the president’s presidency almost went shaky following the opposition’s accusations that he was allowing the country to be taken over by homosexuals. It was alleged that homosexuals had begun showing their ugly heads in Zambia following his election as president and prodded him to state his position. On 15th August 2022 and on 15th March 2023, in Luanshya and Chingola respectively, he categorically reiterated his opposition to homosexuality and denounced it as unacceptable thus putting an end to PF speculation that he was encouraging the importation of homosexuality to Zambia from the West. He urged the church to come out strong and denounce homosexuality and guide our youths. On the contrary, apart from Mr. Lungu who also denounced homosexuality during his presidency, other opposition leaders have not informed the nation of their positions leading to speculation that some of them may be funded by some homosexual advocate groups. Without stating their positions, their performance will likely be affected if some rival political party or parties raise the issue.

Reason No. 6: The Bemba mentality of wanting to always grab the presidency.

Following the PF split into factions, Zambia does not have a strong party capable of challenging the United Party for National Development (UPND). However, one of the factions aka Lungu faction can try to compete in the elections but cannot pose any serious challenge to UPND if it was to find its feet. Both factions are led by Bembas from the Northern part of the country, but the Lungu faction seems stronger than the Sampa one though by order of the court, the Sampa faction is the legitimate one and holds the presidency. Of course, the Bembas are entitled to vie for any position in the country as provided for by the Zambian Constitution. What is surprising though is their lust for power of presidency. No stigma. We had our first Republican president Dr. Kaunda (May his soul rest in peace) hailing from the North, late Chiluba and late Sata also from the same region. Now 97 percent of all political parties in Zambia are led by the North fighting for presidency. No regard for others to also hold the presidency. When are others going to rule?

Now let us assume that Mr. Lungu steps aside for whatever reasons for the 2026 presidency, One would expect a serious scramble for the presidency from PF factions. But hold on for a second! Which Bemba is going to allow another Bemba to take up the presidency? Even if the factions came up with one presidential candidate whether you call it PF faction or UKA, there will be candidates that will break away from that united front. Why? Because that is how they are. Bemba mentality of wanting to be president or always having a Bemba president.

As a result of this mentality, do you think Dr. Chilufya Chitalu can let GBM become the presidential candidate when he believes he is the best candidate? Do you think Hon Mundubile can let Sampa take the candidacy? What about Hon Kampyongo? Can he allow these other Bembas to take up the presidency? Unfortunately for them, even if PF produced one candidate and the rest rallied behind that candidate, my view is that they would still be given an electoral annihilation by UPND because of their past. They have come from a background of failed leadership, reign of terror with their party being perceived as a party of ……nderers.

Anyway, that is the beauty of democracy and freedom of speech. The Bembas are free to enjoy their right to become presidents while I also enjoy my freedom of communication. We are both happy and I will not tolerate funny comments because what I have said is true and correct to the best of my knowledge. When it pleases them, they say “Insansa kuchinjana” but when others want to vie for the presidency, they quickly change their positions. Now watch the space. My article will have two main responses and those will be: Who stopped people from other regions from vying for presidency? My answer in advance using their own adage, “Insoni ebunthu” The other response may just be insults to which I will not be able to respond because they will be too many and my culture does not allow me to insult or insult back.

To be continued in Part Two

By Lastone Nyirenda
The Author is a Human Rights Advocate, Author, Researcher, Youth Development Partner and Corporate and Management Consultant. He holds a Master of Business Administration, Bachelor of Laws, and Diploma in Human Resource Management.