By Edward Chisanga
Zambia’s exports to the UAE are too low
President Hichilema arrived in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) this week with a strong pledge to increase trade between Zambia and that country. I agree with him. Prior to their departure to that country, our Foreign Affairs Minister, Mr. Stanly Kakubo stated, “Zambia is among the 192 countries participating at the Dubai Expo, which runs from 1st October, 2021 to 31st March 2022, and presents a great opportunity to create synergies between advanced and emerging economies to promote equitable growth and development. One of them is trade in line with exactly what the Head of State is pursuing in his pursuit to realign the economy and reduce poverty among Zambians.
Currently, Zambia’s trade with that country is something not worth writing a letter to Zambians about because it is extremely low. In 2020, Zambia’s exports of all products to the UAE amounted to only $24 million while imports from that country were twenty-threefold higher as Table 1 below shows. In other words, as a continued habit, Zambia is importing much more from the UAE ($558million). On the other hand, UAE’s exports to Zambia amounted to $$682 million and imports $145 million. Therefore, the President will be telling the Zambian private sector participating at the Dubai Expo to pull their socks. If he had these statistics prior to his departure, I salute him for telling them that at the moment, they’re exporting literally nothing to that strong country with so much potential for exports for countries like ours.
Table 1: Zambia’s trade in all products with UAE in $millions
|
|
|
2020
|
Zambia |
Imports |
UAE |
558
|
|
Exports |
|
24
|
|
|
|
|
UAE |
Imports |
Zambia |
145
|
|
Exports |
|
682
|
Source: Unctadstat
Zambia ranks number 32 in African countries’ exporting to the UAE
Again, as Minister Kakubo says, “Zambia is among the 192 countries participating at the Dubai Expo. I don’t know these countries. But what I know is that of the fifty-five African countries exporting to the UAE, Zambia’s ranking in terms of dollars earned is number thirty-two, meaning all the thirty-one African countries are exporting ahead of our country as Table 2 (a) below shows. On the other hand, Table 2 (b) shows that in terms of imports, Zambia ranked number 8 which is not very good because the African country is not leveraging external revenue from the Arab country. Again, I would advise our President to send a strong message to our private sector that they’re not available at all in that country. They may be available in terms of shopping but they’re not taking the Zambian product there.
Table 2: Zambia’s ranking in African countries’ exports of all products to UAE in $millions
Table 2 (a) Exports to UAE |
2020
|
Table 2 (b) Imports from EAE |
2020
|
Egypt |
2,665
|
Libya |
1,595
|
Uganda |
1,943
|
Egypt |
1,249
|
South Africa |
1,534
|
South Africa |
1,202
|
Guinea |
1,473
|
Nigeria |
958
|
Mali |
1,461
|
Kenya |
804
|
Zimbabwe |
1,156
|
Tanzania |
679
|
Botswana |
928
|
Djibouti |
575
|
Ghana |
920
|
Uganda |
574
|
DRC |
885
|
Zambia ranks number 8 |
558
|
Libya |
804
|
|
|
Tanzania |
685
|
|
|
Rwanda |
555
|
|
|
Angola |
515
|
|
|
Congo |
409
|
|
|
Benin |
368
|
|
|
Kenya |
308
|
|
|
Nigeria |
145
|
|
|
Namibia |
134
|
|
|
Cameroon |
133
|
|
|
Mozambique |
132
|
|
|
Niger |
103
|
|
|
Senegal |
88
|
|
|
Seychelles |
88
|
|
|
Eritrea |
85
|
|
|
Morocco |
77
|
|
|
Madagascar |
77
|
|
|
Burundi |
75
|
|
|
Ethiopia |
60
|
|
|
Tunisia |
51
|
|
|
Côte d’Ivoire |
38
|
|
|
Togo |
37
|
|
|
Zambia ranks number 32 |
24
|
|
|
Source: Unctadstat
Zambia is exporting raw emeralds, manganese
As suspected, Zambia’s exports to the UAE are largely emeralds and manganese, all unprocessed as Table 2 below shows. To answer the President’s call, the private sector needs to export more dynamic products to that country. Otherwise, it is very difficult to improve the economy on the basis of continued exports of unprocessed goods.
Table 3: Products exported to EAE by Zambia in $’000
Product Code |
US$
|
Product Description |
HS No |
22,494
|
Total Trade |
710391
|
11,668
|
— Rubies, sapphires and emeralds |
720211
|
5,095
|
— Manganese |
260200
|
1,268
|
–Manganese ores and concentrates, in |
Source: COMTRADE
Concluding
In one of my past write ups, someone asked me, “What solution are you proposing?” I cannot propose a solution when I’m not an exporter. I’m an adviser and limited by policy options that I can suggest. One is that history shows that developed and emerging countries that have succeeded in entering global manufacturing began with exports of textiles and clothing. The UK, Germany, China, Viet Nam, Bangladesh, etc were and are focused on this sector.
I cannot understand why, China, the most successful country in exports of textiles and clothing products, present in Zambia is supporting Ethiopia, Rwanda and other African countries but not Zambia. I cannot comprehend what’s going on in Kabwe at the Mulungushi textiles. Yes, because of the World Trade Organization (WTO) trade in this sector is tougher today than it was prior to the liberalization of the WTO agreement on textiles and clothing which has since introduced global competition. But how come Bangladesh, a least developed country in Asia has overtaken Africa in global exports of textiles and clothing? Bangladesh is utilizing free market access in the EU while Zambia is failing to do so there and in the USA.

Let Zambia open an Embassy in Viet Nam with a focus on learning manufacturing only, no politics or other non-manufacturing issues. Viet Nam has overtaken Africa in global exports of manufactured goods. People in that country have more similarities with us in terms of learning economic development. Culturally, they are less detached from us than more developed countries. Let me make one point clear: I’m an advocate that Africa should trade with and acquire foreign direct investment from developed countries and create wealth for its people because that is where wealth is. Bring this wealth into Africa, develop Africa and in turn begin to create wealth from within Africa. On the other hand, I’m also an advocate that learning manufacturing will not come from developed countries. It is easier from emerging economies in Asia if we play our cards well.
Equally, in the UAE, Zambia can start finding out how our private sector can learn some ideas that are making that country diversify its economy and add value to exports. Using agriculture as a strategic product for future exports of value addition is easier said than done. Zambia’s agriculture value added is simply too low in the economy to propel structural change and value addition. In dollar values, according to Unctadstat data, it was less than $1 billion in 2019 while the proportion in GDP was only 3.4%. Among the fifty-five African countries, Zambia ranks number thirty-seven in agriculture value-added in GDP in dollar values. It means there are more serious countries investing in agriculture while Zambia’s investment is largely vocal.
Using agriculture as a strategic policy for global and regional exports means continuing to do what other countries are abandoning. We have no agriculture. Let’s try the harder way that Asian countries tried. The UAE will not import raw tomatoes, beans, vegetables and other stuff that we boast of as potential export products because of stiff international standards which our private sector cannot meet. They will not import Trade Kings’ detergent products because there’re stronger competitors exporting there. They will import manufactured goods if we produce them. Let us help our President to succeed in his promotion by producing these products.
It is unfair to expect him to promote trade that has no dynamic and competitive products. If I were his advisor, I would urge the President to be tougher with the private sector as a way of helping it to succeed than being too friendly. This private sector needs to make friends with its counterparts in Asia or South Africa where export value addition is going on. It cannot always be, “It’s governments’ fault.” President Hichilema was not there. Our private sector has always been there. That is why it must own up.