Tayali Declares HH Likely to Win 2026 by Default as Opposition Falters

In a powerful and sobering address shared on social media, Economic and Equity Party leader Chilufya Tayali has delivered a sharp analysis of Zambia’s current political terrain, warning that President Hakainde Hichilema is likely to retain power in the 2026 general elections not because of overwhelming popularity, but because the opposition has failed to offer a credible alternative.

Tayali, known for his outspoken and at times polarizing commentary, emphasized that he does not support President Hichilema personally but is simply interpreting the political landscape as it stands. Despite growing dissatisfaction with the government, particularly on economic and governance issues, he argued that the opposition remains disorganized, fragmented, and without a unified message strong enough to sway the majority of voters.

According to his assessment, if the current status quo remains unchanged, there will be no transfer of power in 2026. The opposition, in his view, has not yet done the groundwork to inspire or rally the Zambian public around a different vision. What exists instead is a scattered front, riddled with infighting and lacking a solid grassroots strategy to penetrate beyond social media and urban frustration.

He pointed out that social media, which often reflects real-time political sentiment, continues to show significant support for Hichilema. While critical posts about the president attract engagement, many of the responses still defend or support the head of state, indicating that his base, though smaller than in 2021, is far from erased. The presence of this core support group, especially among educated urban voters and rural loyalists, gives the ruling United Party for National Development (UPND) a consistent, if reduced, advantage.

At the same time, the opposition has been slow to build its narrative. The former ruling Patriotic Front remains entangled in internal leadership battles and credibility issues, while other emerging political formations have yet to demonstrate nationwide influence or coherent platforms. Public discontent, Tayali warned, does not automatically translate into political momentum if there is no one to channel that energy effectively.

This political vacuum creates a dangerous illusion for opposition supporters who assume the public is ready for change. The absence of clear leadership, a compelling message, or national coordination means that many voters may return to the familiar, however flawedrather than risk the unknown.

Tayali’s analysis reflects a broader truth quietly acknowledged by many political observers: the path to 2026 is not only about the incumbent’s performance but equally about the opposition’s ability to earn the public’s trust. Zambia’s recent electoral history shows that transitions of power require not just public anger, but strategic preparation and unity on the part of challengers.

While President Hichilema’s government has struggled with high expectations, especially regarding job creation, the cost of living, and youth empowerment, his administration has retained key support from international partners, maintained relative macroeconomic stability, and continued implementing institutional reforms. These factors may not excite the average voter but contribute to a perception of steadiness, especially in contrast to a chaotic opposition front.

Tayali’s comments, stripped of partisanship, offer an uncomfortable but necessary mirror to both sides of Zambia’s political aisle. For the ruling party, it is a call not to grow complacent. For the opposition, it is a challenge to step out of rhetorical battles and build real, on-the-ground political machinery before the 2026 campaign season is fully underway.

If nothing changes, Zambia may head into the next election not with a contest of ideas but with a quiet, reluctant confirmation of the incumbent. And that, more than anything, may define the political mood of a country caught between fatigue and frustration.

Lake Kariba’s water levels have continued to rise gradually, attributed to consistent inflows from the upper catchment of the Zambezi River, according to the latest update from the Zambezi River Authority (ZRA).

As of 19 May 2025, the lake’s level stood at 477.99 meters, representing 17.33% of usable live storage capacity. This marks a slight increase from the previous week, where the level was recorded at 477.96 meters with 17.12% usable storage.

The ZRA reports that inflows from key monitoring stations upstream have been steadily increasing. At Chavuma, flows closed the period under review at 1,137 cubic meters per second, up from 520 m³/s on the same date last year. Similarly, flows at Ngonye and Victoria Falls have shown significant year-on-year increases, indicating a positive trend in water availability.

This gradual rise in water levels is a welcome development for both Zambia and Zimbabwe, as Lake Kariba is a critical source of hydroelectric power for the region. The increased water levels enhance the potential for power generation, which is vital for meeting the energy demands of both countries.

However, the ZRA cautions that while the current trend is positive, continued monitoring is essential. The authority emphasizes the importance of sustainable water management practices to ensure the long-term viability of Lake Kariba as a resource for power generation and other uses.

Lake Kariba, the world’s largest man-made reservoir by volume, plays a pivotal role in the region’s ecology and economy. The ongoing increase in water levels offers a glimmer of hope for improved energy stability and economic resilience in the face of climate variability.

Zambia’s Minister of Water and Sanitation, Collins Nzovu, has raised the alarm over the country’s deepening water crisis and unveiled an ambitious plan to modernize the sector through Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs).

“Our infrastructure is stuck in the past,” Nzovu declared during a keynote speech at the Zambia Water Forum. “While our population has doubled since 2000, investment in water systems has stagnated.”

Today, 4 million Zambians lack access to clean water, and 60% of urban water systems are operating at half capacity, hampered by outdated infrastructure and frequent power shortages. According to the 2023 National Water Policy, 70% of Zambia’s water treatment plants, most of which were built in the 1980s, are now obsolete.

In Kitwe, residents endure 72-hour water rationing cycles, forcing many to rely on contaminated wells. “Cholera outbreaks are inevitable without intervention,” warned Dr. Matshidiso Moeti, WHO’s regional representative.

Nzovu’s PPP initiative aims to attract $500 million in investment by 2025, focusing on upgrading water purification plants, drilling new boreholes, and improving distribution networks. A pilot project in Ndola, funded by a €20 million EU grant, has already shown promising results—reducing water leakage by 30%.

However, the proposed privatization model has drawn criticism. “Private firms prioritize profit over people,” said Paul Hakoola, Director of a local NGO. “We’ve seen tariff hikes in Kenya and Ghana under similar models, pricing out low-income families.”

Nzovu responded by assuring the public that affordability safeguards, such as subsidies for vulnerable groups, will be built into all PPP contracts. “PPPs must serve the public interest,” he emphasized. The ministry is also exploring decentralized water solutions, including solar-powered community kiosks.

Meanwhile, the European Union has increased its funding for Zambia’s water sector by 30%, signaling international confidence in the reforms.

Despite these strides, significant hurdles remain. Bureaucratic red tape and corruption scandals,such as the 2022 misallocation of $4 million intended for borehole development—threaten to derail progress. In response, Nzovu has promised to “clean house,” launching an anti-corruption task force within the ministry.

“Failure is not an option,” Nzovu concluded. “Water is life.”

President Hakainde Hichilema on Sunday joined congregants at the Times of Refreshing International Ministry Church in Choma, where he expressed deep appreciation for the church’s continued efforts in fostering peace, unity, and moral integrity across Zambia.

Addressing the congregation, President Hichilema reaffirmed his belief in the unifying power of faith, stating, “The body of Christ is one—united in faith and purpose. We are grateful for the church’s unwavering commitment to national unity and spiritual guidance.”

The President highlighted the church’s vital role in reinforcing the family unit and nurturing values that serve as the foundation of a cohesive and productive society. “Through its teachings, the church strengthens families and helps uphold the moral fabric of our nation,” he noted.

President Hichilema encouraged the church to remain steadfast in spreading messages of love, peace, and diligence, emphasizing that each citizen has a role to play in Zambia’s progress.

“We must all give our very best in everything we do,” he urged. “Let us build a culture of hard work and collective responsibility that will shape a brighter future for our country.”

The visit underscored the government’s recognition of the church as a key partner in national development and a pillar in the social and moral upliftment of Zambians.